As we enter March, the economy is undergoing a period of adjustment with the new administration, however, there are a few reasons to be optimistic. While GDP for the first quarter may show a temporary contraction, this appears to be driven in part by businesses accelerating imports ahead of potential tariffs—an effect that could reverse later in the year. Weather-related sales seem to have also contributed to this slowdown, and the broader economy remains resilient while long-term prospects continue to favor steady growth.
Inflation, a key concern for many, is gradually easing. Prices rose 3.0% year-over-year in January; however, this marks a continuation of the disinflationary trend we have seen over the past year. Efforts to streamline government spending through the DOGE initiative may further support long-term economic stability by reducing debt and fostering a more sustainable fiscal path.
While certain sectors are adjusting to policy changes, history has shown that periods of transition often lead to new opportunities. The economy is adapting, businesses are recalibrating, and investors who maintain a long-term, diversified approach will be well-positioned for future growth.
For Americans, this environment presents a chance to focus on financial resilience, make informed investment decisions, and embrace the evolving landscape with confidence. Economic cycles bring both challenges and opportunities, and we remain committed to helping navigate this journey with a clear, strategic approach.
"William Penn, the Quaker leader and founder of Pennsylvania, saw time as a divine gift—precious yet often squandered. His experiences—fighting for religious freedom, governing a colony, and enduring imprisonment—shaped his understanding of its value. In 1693, he captured this wisdom in Some Fruits of Solitude, a collection of reflections on life and virtue, where he famously observed, 'Time is what we want most, but what we use worst.'"
"Since Inauguration Day, a flurry of policy announcements have occurred, including a series of tariff announcements. The sharp rise in policy uncertainty, combined with recent softening in business and consumer confidence, has led investors to worry about a potential economic slowdown. What is the investing playbook amidst the trade turmoil?"
"Is the US already in recession? Probably not. But in the first quarter, real GDP is very likely to have a minus sign in front of it. Yes, a negative reading for real growth!"
"As ever, NVIDIA founder and CEO Jensen Huang is very aware of the market concerns centered around companies overspending on the AI infrastructure build out and sought to address them head on during the earnings call."
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